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Shocks, Frictions, and Inequality in US Business Cycles
Christian Bayer, Benjamin Born, and Ralph Luetticke
American Economic Review. May 2024, Vol. 114, No. 5: Pages 1211-1247

Shocks, Frictions, and Inequality in US Business Cycles

Christian Bayer1, Benjamin Born2 and Ralph Luetticke3

1University of Bonn, CEPR, CESifo, and IZA (email: )

2Frankfurt School of Finance & Management, CEPR, CESifo, and ifo Institute (email: )

3University of Tuebingen, CEPR, and CFM (email: )

Abstract

We show how a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian (HANK) model with incomplete markets and portfolio choice can be estimated in state space using a Bayesian approach. To render estimation feasible, the structure of the economy can be exploited and the dimensionality of the model automatically reduced based on the Bayesian priors. We apply this approach to analyze how much inequality matters for the business cycle and vice versa. Even when the model is estimated on aggregate data alone and with a set of shocks and frictions designed to match aggregate data, it broadly reproduces observed US inequality dynamics. (JEL D31, D52, E12, E32, E52, E62)