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Heat Exposure and Youth Migration in Central America and the Caribbean
Javier Baez, German Caruso, Valerie Mueller, and Chiyu Niu
American Economic Review. May 2017, Vol. 107, No. 5: Pages 446-450

Heat Exposure and Youth Migration in Central America and the Caribbean†

Javier Baez1, German Caruso2, Valerie Mueller3 and Chiyu Niu4

1World Bank, 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, DC 20433 (e-mail: )

2World Bank, 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, DC 20433 (e-mail: )

3International Food Policy Research Institute, 2033 K Street, NW, Washington, DC 20006 (e-mail: )

4Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois, 326 Mumford Hall, 1301 W. Gregory Drive, Urbana, IL 61801 (e-mail: )

Abstract

We employ a triple difference-in-difference approach, using censuses and georeferenced temperature data, to quantify heat effects on internal migration in Central America and the Caribbean. A 1-standard deviation increase in heat would affect the lives of 7,314 and 1,578 unskilled young women and men. The effect is smaller than observed in response to droughts and hurricanes but could increase with climate change. Interestingly, youth facing heat waves are more likely to move to urban centers than when exposed to disasters endemic to the region. Research identifying the implications of these choices and interventions available to minimize distress migration is warranted.