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Unequal Rewards to Firms: Stock Market Responses to the Trump Election and the 2017 Corporate Tax Reform
Alexander F. Wagner, Richard J. Zeckhauser, and Alexandre Ziegler
AEA Papers and Proceedings. May 2018, Vol. 108, No. : Pages 590-596

Unequal Rewards to Firms: Stock Market Responses to the Trump Election and the 2017 Corporate Tax Reform

Alexander F. Wagner1, Richard J. Zeckhauser2 and Alexandre Ziegler3

1University of Zurich and Swiss Finance Institute (email: )

2Harvard University and NBER (email: )

3University of Zurich (email: )

Abstract

Massive dollars shuttled back and forth among firms on the twisted path to and passage of the 2017 tax reform. Prices of individual stocks responded to the difference between initial and revised expectations. From the bill's initiation in the House to final passage, high-tax firms gained significantly, given the dramatic cut from 35 percent to 21 percent in the corporate tax rate. Internationally-oriented firms suffered notably, since investors assessed that the surprisingly high repatriation tax outweighed the benefits from territorial taxation. Daily price movements show that the aggregate market responded positively to lower expected taxes.