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What Drives US Import Price Inflation?
Mary Amiti, Oleg Itskhoki, and David E. Weinstein
AEA Papers and Proceedings. May 2024, Vol. 114, No. : Pages 106-111

What Drives US Import Price Inflation?

Mary Amiti1, Oleg Itskhoki2, and David E. Weinstein3

1Federal Reserve Bank of New York and CEPR (email: )

2UCLA, NBER, and CEPR (email: )

3Columbia University, NBER, and CEPR (email: ).

Abstract

Inflation has risen sharply in many countries since the COVID-19 outbreak, and economists have debated the underlying causes. In this paper, we examine the drivers of the global import price inflation, which peaked at approximately 11 percent a year. We find that a common global component closely tracks movements in aggregate US import prices until late 2022. Afterward, idiosyncratic US demand shocks started to dominate.