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Taxes and US Oil Production: Evidence from California and the Windfall Profit Tax
Nirupama L. Rao
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy. Nov 2018, Vol. 10, No. 4: Pages 268-301

Taxes and US Oil Production: Evidence from California and the Windfall Profit Tax

Nirupama L. Rao1

1Ross School of Business, University of Michigan, 701 Tappan Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 (email: )

Abstract

The recent boom in US oil production has prompted debates on levying new taxes on oil. This paper uses new well-level production data and price variation from federal oil taxes and price controls to assess how taxes affected production. After-tax price elasticity estimates range between 0.295 (0.038) and 0.371 (0.025). Response along the shut-in margin is minimal. There is no evidence of spatial shifting of production to minimize tax liabilities. Taken together, the results suggest that taxes reduced domestic production in the 1980s, and the response largely came from wells that continued to pump oil, but at a reduced rate. (JEL H25, H32, L71, L78, Q35, Q38)